Ten Down, Six to Go

Through eleven weeks (and ten games per team) of the 2009 NFL season, something unusual is happening. While having one undefeated team at this point is very rare, having two is unheard of. Yet despite the unlikelihood, the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts both have zeros in the loss column so far. Both, however, have both suffered through some scary games. The Saints came back in the fourth quarter to beat the Dolphins and the Rams. The Colts, as everyone knows, came back from 13 down in the fourth quarter to beat the Patriots. And on Sunday, Indy beat the Baltimore Ravens, 17-15, in a game that saw Baltimore kicker Billy Cundiff miss a 30 yard field goal. Both teams, obviously, have received more than their fair share of lucky breaks. But will those breaks continue?

Let's take a look at recent NFL history, and, specifically, two teams who recently came close to 16 regular season wins. The most recent, of course, was New England, who did pull off the 16-0 regular season before falling in the Super Bowl to the New York Giants. They could have just as easily been 12-4 during the regular season, so perhaps karma caught up to them. I don't believe in karma in terms of morality but I do believe in statistics. It's called regression to the mean. The other team, which I think has more relevance to these two teams, was the 2005 Indianapolis Colts. That team started the season 13-0 and it included Indy's first big win over New England. The Colts, however, were stunned by the Chargers at home. The next week, with there being no incentive to play the regulars, the Colts got butchered by a very good Seattle team that went to the Super Bowl. The Colts finished 14-2 but lost their playoff game to the Steelers, who went on to win the Super Bowl.

So what does that say about the 2009 Saints and Colts. I think it says that both can expect to lose games soon. For New Orleans, it might be next Monday night, when they host the Patriots. I, in fact, am going out on a limb and predicting that the Patriots win that game. The Colts, meanwhile, could very easily lose one of their next two games. They must visit a generally solid Houston team on Sunday. The week after, they host a Tennessee team that is 4-0 since Vince Young became a starter. The Titans, last night, scored a very impressive win in Houston. I think the Colts have a better chance than the Saints to run the table, but the chances are not great for either team.